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Wim nsakrae wɔ Afrika

Ɛfi Wikipedia
Mfonini a ɛkyerɛ ɔhyew nsakrae wɔ Afrika wɔ 1901 ne 2021 ntam, a kɔla kɔkɔɔ yɛ hyew na bruu yɛ nwini sen sɛnea wɔkyekyem pɛpɛɛpɛ (wɔfa ɔhyew a ɛkɔɔ so wɔ 1971–2000 mu sɛ ade a wɔde hwɛ nsakrae yi).

Wim nsakrae a ɛwɔ Afrika no yɛ asiane a emu yɛ den kɛse efisɛ Afrika ka nsasepɔn a ɛyɛ mmerɛw kɛse wɔ wim nsakrae nkɛntɛnso ho no ho.[1][2][3] Nsɛm bi mpo bu Afrika sɛ "asasepɔn a ɛyɛ mmerɛw sen biara wɔ Asase so".[4][5] Ɛda adi sɛ wim nsakrae ne wim nsakrae bɛtew kuayɛ mu nneɛma a wɔyɛ, aduan a wobenya ne nsu a wobenya so[6] Ne saa nti, nsunsuanso bɔne bɛba nkurɔfo asetra ne nkɔso a ɛtra hɔ daa so wɔ Afrika[2]

Wɔ mfe du du a ɛreba no mu no, ɛkame ayɛ sɛ wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ wim nsakrae betumi ayɛ hyew wɔ Asase no ani nyinaa, na osu a ɛtɔ wɔ wiase nyinaa no bɛkɔ soro[7] Mprempren, sɛ wɔkyekyem pɛpɛɛpɛ a, Afrika rehyew ntɛmntɛm sen wiase aman a aka no. Ebia asasepɔn no afa akɛse bɛyɛ nea wontumi ntena ase esiane nkɛntɛnso a wim nsakrae de ba ntɛmntɛm nti, na ebenya nkɛntɛnso bɔne wɔ nnipa akwahosan, aduan a wobenya, ne ohia so.[8][9][10] Wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ nkɛntɛnso a osu tɔ wɔ mmeae a osu tɔ wɔ mmeae a osu tɔ na owia bɔ kɛse wɔ mpɔtam hɔ no bɛsakra kɛse wɔ mmeae ahorow. Mpɛn pii no, nsakrae a ɛbɛkɔ so wɔ beae biako biara no nyɛ nea wontumi nsi pi kɛse.

Mpɛn pii no, ɔhyew a wɔahu wɔ asase ani no akɔ soro bɛyɛ 1 °C wɔ Afrika fi afeha a ɛto so 19 awiei kosi afeha a ɛto so 21 mfiase.[11] Wɔ Sahel no, nkɔanim no akɔ soro akodu 3 °C ama ɔhyew a ɛba fam koraa wɔ ɔpɛ bere awiei.[11] Nsɛm a ɛfa ɔhyew ne osutɔ ho kyerɛ sɛ ɛne nea wɔtaa tɔ no nhyia, wɔ bere ne beae a wɔyɛ no nyinaa mu.[2][12][13]

Sɛ nhwɛso no, Kenya wɔ baabi a ɛyɛ mmerɛw kɛse wɔ nkɛntɛnso a wim nsakrae de ba no ho. Wim tebea mu asiane atitiriw no bi ne ɔpɛ ne nsuyiri efisɛ ɛda adi sɛ osu bɛtɔ kɛse na wontumi nhyɛ nkɔm. Wim tebea ho nhwɛso ahorow kyerɛ sɛ ɔhyew bɛkɔ soro 0.5 kosi 2 °C.[14]

Wɔ Nairobi nkurow akɛse mu atrae a ɛnyɛ ɔkwan biara so no, nkurow akɛse mu ɔhyew supɔw so nkɛntɛnso no de ɔhaw no ka ho bere a ɛma ɛhɔ yɛ hyew kɛse mpo no. Eyi fi nneɛma a wɔde si afie, mframa a enni hɔ, mmeae a ɛhɔ yɛ frɔmfrɔm a enni hɔ, ne anyinam ahoɔden ne nnwuma afoforo a wontumi nnya no yiye.[15]

Afrika Aman Nkabom Kuo no de botaeɛ 47 ne nneyɛeɛ a ɛne no hyia ato hɔ wɔ afe 2014 amanneɛbɔ nhyehyɛeɛ a wɔde bɛko atia wim nsakraeɛ wɔ Afrika na wɔabrɛ ase no mu.[16] The International Monetary Fund no hyɛɛ nyansa wɔ afe 2021 mu sɛ ebia ɛho behia dɔla ɔpepepem 50 na wɔde atua ka a wɔbɔ wɔ wim nsakrae a wɔbɛsakra ho wɔ Afrika no ho.[17][18][19]

Mframa a ɛma wim yɛ hyew a wɔtow gu

[sesa]

Africa’s per person greenhouse gas emissions no sua sɛ wɔde toto nsasepɔn afoforo ho a[20] Wɔntumi nsi mframa bɔne a efi nsakrae a ɛba wɔ asase a wɔde di dwuma mu mu ba, titiriw wɔ Afrika Mfinimfini fam.[21] Ade titiriw a ɛde adwenem naayɛ ba no fi carbon dioxide a ɛsen wɔ LULUCF adwumayɛbea no mu (saa asɛmfua tiawa yi gyina hɔ ma asase a wɔde di dwuma, nsakrae a ɛba wɔ asase a wɔde di dwuma mu, ne kwae) .[21]

Nkɛntɛnso ahorow

[sesa]
Tanzania ahenkurow Dar es Salaam a wɔde wim hwɛ
Abidjan, Ivory Coast sikasɛm mu tumi kɛse no

Ɔhyew ne wim tebea a ɛsakra 

[sesa]

Mpɛn pii no, asase ani hyew a wɔahu no akɔ soro wɔ Afrika so fi afeha a ɛto so 19 awiei kosi afeha a ɛto so 21 mfiase bɛyɛ 1 °C, nanso wɔ mpɔtam hɔ no, ɛkɔ soro kodu 3 °C ma ɔhyew a ɛba fam koraa wɔ Sahel wɔ ɔpɛ bere awiei.[11] Osutɔ a wɔahu no kyerɛ sɛ nsonsonoe wɔ beae ne bere mu sɛnea wɔhwɛɛ kwan no.[12][2] Nsakrae a wɔahu wɔ ɔhyew ne osutɔ mu no gu ahorow wɔ ɔmantam biara mu[2][12]

Mprempren wim tebea ho nhwɛso ahorow (sɛnea wɔabobɔ so wɔ IPCC Nhwehwɛmu Amanneɛbɔ a Ɛto so Nsia no mu) kyerɛ sɛ ɔpɛ ne osu kɛse a ɛtɔ mpɛn pii ne sɛnea emu yɛ den no bɛkɔ soro.[22]

Wɔhyɛ nkɔm nso sɛ ɛkame ayɛ sɛ osutɔ a ɛkɔ fam wɔ Afrika baabiara, a ahotoso a ɛwɔ mfinimfini kosi kɛse wom. Nanso, ɛda adi sɛ osu a ɛtɔ wɔ mpɔtam hɔ ne asetra ne wim tebea mu nkitahodi bɛda adi wɔ akwan horow a adi afra so. Enti, nkɛntɛnso a wim nsakrae de ba a ɛka bom no bɛyɛ soronko wɔ asasepɔn no so. Wɔ nkuraase no, sɛnea osu tɔ no nya nsu a wɔde di dwuma no so nkɛntɛnso[22]

Nhwehwɛmu bi a wɔyɛe wɔ afe 2019 mu kyerɛe sɛ ɔpɛ bere tenten bɛkɔ soro wɔ osutɔ bere mu na osu a ɛtɔ kɛse no akɔ soro wɔ Afrika.[3] Ɔkwan foforo so no: "Afrika wim tebea a ɛtra so no awiei abien no nyinaa bɛyɛ kɛse".[4] Nhwehwɛmu no hunuu sɛ wim tebea ho nhwɛsoɔ dodoɔ no ara rentumi nkyere nsakraeɛ yi kodu ɛfiri sɛ ɛnyɛ convection-permitting wɔ wɔn coarse grid scales no so[3]

Po mu nsu a ɛkɔ soro

[sesa]

Wɔ Afrika no, nnipa dodow a ɛbɛkɔ soro daakye no ma asiane ahorow a efi po mu nsu a ɛkɔ soro mu ba no yɛ kɛse. Nnipa bɛyɛ ɔpepem 54.2 na wɔtenaa mpoano mmeae a ɛhɔ yɛ toro kɛse (LECZ) bɛyɛ afe 2000. Wɔ ɔkwan a etu mpɔn so no, dodow yi bɛboro nnipa bɛyɛ ɔpepem 110 wɔ afe 2030. Edu afe 2060 no ɛbɛyɛ nnipa ɔpepem 185 kosi 230, a egyina nnipa dodow a wɔte so onyini. Sɛ wɔkyekyɛ mu a, ɔmantam no mu po mu nsuo a ɛbɛkɔ soro bɛyɛ sɛntimita 21 wɔ afe 2060. Saa berɛ no, wim nsakraeɛ tebea remma nsonsonoeɛ kɛseɛ biara mma. Nanso mpɔtam hɔ asase ho nsɛm ne nnipa dodow a ɛkɔ so di nkitaho ma asiane ahorow te sɛ mfe 100 nsuyiri a wɔde wɔn ho hyɛ mu no yɛ kɛse wɔ ɔkwan a ɛyɛ den so.[23]

Nnipa dodow a wɔwɔ mmeae a nsuyiri ayiri mfe 100.[23][T1 1]

[sesa]
Ɔman 2000 2030 2060 Nkɔso 2000–2060
Egypt 7.4 13.8 20.7 0.28
Nigeria 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.84
Senegal 0.4 1.1 2.7 0.76
Benin 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.12
Tanzania 0.2 0.9 4.3 2.3
Somalia 0.2 0.6 2.7 1.7
Cote d'Ivoire 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.65
Mozambique 0.7 1.4 2.5 0.36

Wɔ bere tiaa bi mu no, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ nnipa pii a wobetu afi wɔn afie mu no bi bɛba wɔ East Africa mantam. Anyɛ yiye koraa no, ɛda adi sɛ nnipa 750,000 a wɔwɔ hɔ no betu afi mpoano wɔ afe 2020 ne 2050 ntam. Nyansahu mu nhwehwɛmu bu akontaa sɛ Afrika nkuropɔn akɛse 12 bɛka abom anya ɔsɛe a wɔaboaboa ano a ɛyɛ U.S. dɔla ɔpepepem 65 ama wim nsakrae tebea "a ɛkɔ fam" RCP4.5 wɔ afe 2050 mu. Nkurow yi yɛ Abidjan, Alexandria, Algiers, Cape Town, Casablanca, Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Durban, Lagos, Lomé, Luanda ne Maputo. Wɔ tebea a ɛma mframa bɔne pii gu RCP8.5 ase no, ɔsɛe no bɛyɛ U.S. dɔla ɔpepepem 86.5. Nsukyenee a ɛmma mframa bɔne pii no fa a ɛwɔ nkɛntɛnso foforo a efi nsukyenee a entumi nnyina pintinn kɛse mu ba no bɛhwehwɛ sɛ wɔsɛe nneɛma a ɛkɔ soro kodu U.S. dɔla ɔpepepem 137.5. Ɔsɛeɛ a ɛbɛfiri saa tebea mmiɛnsa yi mu a ɛde "nsɛm a ɛmma ɛnyɛ yie, a ɛsɛe ade kɛseɛ" bɛka ho no bɛkɔ soro akodu U.S. dɔla ɔpepepem 187, U.S. dɔla ɔpepepem 206 ne U.S. dɔla ɔpepepem 397.[23] Wɔ saa akontaabu ahorow yi mu no, Misrifo kurow Alexandria nkutoo na ɛyɛ akontaabu yi bɛyɛ fa.[23] Ebia nnipa ɔpehaha pii a wɔwɔ ne mmeae a ɛba fam no behia sɛ wotu kɔtra mmeae foforo dedaw wɔ mfe du a ɛreba no mu.[24] Wɔ Afrika Sahara anafoɔ fam nyinaa, ɔsɛeɛ a ɛfiri po mu nsuo a ɛkɔ soro no bɛtumi adu GDP 2–4% wɔ afe 2050. Nanso saa akontabuo yi gyina baabi a daakye sikasɛm mu nkɔsoɔ ne nsakraeɛ bɛkɔ so[23]

Wɔ bere tenten mu no, ɛda adi sɛ Egypt, Mozambique ne Tanzania na nnipa dodow a nsuyiri a ɛba afe biara ka wɔn sen biara wɔ Afrika aman nyinaa mu. Saa nsusuwii yi fa no sɛ wiase nyinaa hyew bedu 4 °C wɔ afeha no awiei. Saa nkɔanim no ne RCP8.5 tebea no wɔ abusuabɔ. Wɔ RCP8.5 ase no, na amammerɛ mmeae a ɛho hia 10 bɛkɔ asiane mu sɛ nsuyiri ne nsuo bɛtɔ wɔ afeha no awieeɛ. Eyinom ne Casbah a ɛwɔ Algiers, Carthage Fam Atutuw beae, Kerkouane, Leptis Magna Fam Atutuw beae, Medina a ɛwɔ Sousse, Medina a ɛwɔ Tunis, Sabratha Fam Atutuw beae, Robben Supɔw, Saint-Louis Supɔw ne Tipasa. Sɛ wɔka ne nyinaa bom a, Ramsar mmeae 15 ne abɔde mu agyapade afoforo behyia asiane a ɛte saa ara. Eyinom ne Bao Bolong Nsuten a Wɔkora So, Delta du Saloum Ɔman Mmoa Yɛmmea, Diawling Ɔman Mmoa Yɛmmea, Golfe de Boughrara, Kalissaye, Lagune de Ghar el Melh ne Delta de la Mejerda, Marromeu Mmoa a Wɔkora So, Parc Naturel des Mangroves du Fleuve Cacheu, Seal Ledges Mantam Abɔde Reserve, Sebkhet Halk Elmanzel ne Oued Essed, Sebkhet Soliman, Réserve Naturelle d’Intérêt Communautaire de la Somone, Songor Abɔde a Nkwa Wom Akorae, Tanbi Nsuo a Ɛyɛ Fɛ ne Watamu Po so Ɔman Mmoa Yɛmmea.[23]

Asetra ne sikasɛm mu nkɛntɛnso ahorow

[sesa]

Wim nsakrae bɛka Afrika kɛse esiane nneɛma pii nti. Wɔrete saa nsunsuanso ahorow yi nka dedaw na sɛ wɔanyɛ biribi mfa ntew mframa bɔne a wɔtow gu wiase nyinaa so a, ɛbɛkɔ soro kɛse. Nneɛma a ɛde ba no bi ne ɔhyew a ɛkɔ soro, ɔpɛ, osutɔ a ɛsakra, ne wim tebea a ɛsakra kɛse. Saa tebea horow yi nya ahoɔden a wɔyɛ ne nea wɔde di dwuma so nkɛntɛnso. Ɔpɛ a esii nnansa yi wɔ Afrika aman pii mu a wɔde wim nsakrae wɔ abusuabɔ no kaa ahoɔden ahobammɔ ne sikasɛm mu nkɔso nyinaa wɔ asasepɔn no so nyinaa wɔ ɔkwan a enye so.

Afrika bɛyɛ mmeae a wim nsakrae de nkɛntɛnso bɔne no aka wɔn kɛse no mu biako.[25] Nneɛma a ɛma Afrika yɛ mmerɛw no gu ahorow na nea ɛka ho ne tumi a ɛba fam a ɛma wotumi sesa nneɛma, mfiridwuma ne nsɛm a ɛfa nsakrae a ɛboa ma wɔtrɛw mu yiye, ne ahotoso kɛse a wɔde to kuayɛ mu abɔde a nkwa wom so de nya asetrade[26] Wɔabu aman pii a ɛwɔ Afrika nyinaa sɛ Aman a wonnyaa nkɔso pii (LDCs) a wɔn asetra ne sikasɛm tebea nye, na sɛnea ɛkyerɛ no, wohyia nsɛnnennen titiriw wɔ sɛnea wobedi wim nsakrae nkɛntɛnso ahorow ho dwuma no mu[27] Asiane a ɛda adi pefee a wɔahu ama Afrika wɔ IPCC Nhwehwɛmu Amanneɛbɔ a Ɛto so Anum mu no fa abɔdeɛ a nkwa wom, nsuo a ɛwɔ hɔ, ne kuayɛ nhyehyɛeɛ ho, na ɛkyerɛ aduane a wɔbɛnya.[25]

Wɔ afe 2022 mu no, nnipa bɛboro 6,000 a wofi Afrika aman du mu de wɔn ho hyɛɛ wim tebea ho nhwehwɛmu bi a Europa Sikakorabea no yɛe mu.[28] Nhwehwɛmu no hui sɛ wɔn a wobisabisaa wɔn nsɛm no mu 88% kae sɛ wim nsakrae repira wɔn asetra, bere a wɔn a wobisabisaa wɔn nsɛm no mu 61% kae sɛ nneɛma a atwa yɛn ho ahyia a wɔsɛe no no aka wɔn sika a wonya anaa wɔn asetrade fibea.[29] Mpɛn pii no, ɔpɛ a emu yɛ den, po mu nsu a ɛkɔ soro anaa mpoano a ɛreworo so, anaa wim tebea a emu yɛ den te sɛ nsuyiri anaa ahum na ɛma nneɛma a wɔhwere yi ba.[28]

Afrikafo a wobisabisaa wɔn nsɛm no mu bɛboro fa (57%) kae sɛ wɔn anaa nnipa a wonim wɔn no ayɛ nneɛma dedaw de ayɛ nsakrae wɔ nea wim nsakrae de ba no ho[28]. Nneɛma a wɔayɛ yi bi ne sika a wɔde bɛto mfiri a wɔde sie nsuo mu de abrɛ ɔpɛ a ɛde ba no ase na wɔayi nsuo a ɛkɔ nsuo mu ansa na nsuyiri aba.[28]

Sikasɛm mu nkɛntɛnso ahorow

[sesa]

Sɛ wɔkyekyem pɛpɛɛpɛ a, Afrika rehyew ntɛmntɛm sen wiase aman a aka no. Asasepɔn no afa akɛseɛ betumi ayɛ nea wontumi ntena mu ɛnam saa nti na Afrika ɔman no mu nneɛma nyinaa (GDP) betumi akɔ fam 2% esiane wiase hyew a ɛkɔ soro 1 °C nti, ne 12% esiane 4 °C nti ɔhyew a ɛkɔ soro. Wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ nnɔbae a wonya no so bɛtew kɛse esiane ɔhyew a ɛkɔ soro nti na wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ osu kɛse bɛtɔ mpɛn pii na atɔ denneennen wɔ Afrika nyinaa, na ama nsuyiri ho asiane no ayɛ kɛse.[30][31][32][33].

Bio nso, Afrika hwere dɔla ɔpepepem 7 kosi dɔla ɔpepepem 15 afe biara esiane wim nsakrae nti, na wɔkyerɛ sɛ ebedu afe 2030 no, ebedu dɔla ɔpepepem 50.[34]

Kuadwuma

[sesa]

Kuadwuma yɛ ade titiriw wɔ Afrika, na ɛboa ma wonya asetrade ne sikasɛm wɔ asasepɔn no so nyinaa. Sɛ wɔkyekyɛ mu a, kuayɛ a ɛwɔ Afrika Sahara Anafo fam no boa 15% wɔ GDP nyinaa mu.[35] Afrika asase ho nsɛm ma ɛyɛ mmerɛw titiriw sɛ wim nsakrae betumi aba, na ɔmanfo no mu 70% de wɔn ho to kuayɛ a osu tɔ na ɛma wonya wɔn asetrade so.[36] Mfuw nketewa yɛ nsase a wɔyɛ so adwuma wɔ Afrika Sahara Anafo fam no mu 80%.[35] IPCC wɔ afe 2007 mu no hyɛɛ nkɔm sɛ wim nsakraeɛ ne nsakraeɛ bɛma kuayɛ mu nnɔbaeɛ ne aduane a wɔbɛnya no ayɛ basaa kɛseɛ.[37] Wɔde "ahotoso a ɛkorɔn" maa saa projection yi. Nnuadewa nhyehyɛe, mmoa ne mpataayi bɛkɔ asiane kɛse mu sɛ mmoawa ne nyarewa bɛba esiane wim nsakrae a ɛbɛba daakye nti.[38] Nnuadewa mu mmoawa a wɔsɛe nnɔbae no yɛ bɛyɛ afuw mu nnɔbae a wɔhwere no nkyem 1/6 dedaw.[38] Wim nsakrae bɛma mmoawa a wɔsɛe nnɔbae ne nyarewa abu so ntɛmntɛm na ama nsɛm a enya nkɛntɛnso kɛse aba kɛse.[38] Nkɛntɛnso a wim nsakrae benya wɔ kuayɛ mu nneɛma a wɔyɛ so wɔ Afrika no benya nkɛntɛnso kɛse wɔ aduan a wobenya ne asetrade so. Wɔ afe 2014 ne 2018 ntam no, Afrika na aduane a wonnya nni wɔ wiase nyinaa.[39]

Ɛdefa kuayɛ nhyehyɛe ho no, ahotoso a wɔde to kuayɛ a osu tɔ na ɛma wonya asetrade so kɛse ne wim tebea ho kuayɛ ho nneyɛe a nyansa wom a wɔmfa nni dwuma pii no boa ma adwumayɛkuw no yɛ mmerɛw kɛse. Tebea no mu yɛ den esiane ahotoso a enni mu wɔ wim tebea ho nsɛm ne nsɛm a wobetumi anya de aboa nneyɛe a wɔde sakra nsakrae no nti.[40] Ɛda adi sɛ osutɔ nhyehyɛe mu ɔhaw a wɔahu na wɔahyɛ ho nkɔm esiane wim nsakrae nti no bɛma bere a wɔde nyin no ayɛ tiaa na aka nnɔbae a wonya wɔ Afrika mmeae pii. Bio nso, akuafo nkumaa a wonni mfiridwuma ne nneɛma a wɔde bɛyɛ nsakrae pii na wodi kuayɛ adwuma a ɛwɔ Afrika no so.[41]

Wim nsakrae ne nsakrae ayɛ nea ɛde nsakrae ba wiase nyinaa aduan a wɔyɛ mu wɔ aman a afei na wɔrenya nkɔso a nneɛma a wɔyɛ no gyina osu so kɛse no mu na ɛda so ara yɛ saa.[42] Kuadwuma adwuma no te nka wɔ wim tebea mu nsakrae ho,[43] titiriw no nsakrae a ɛba afe biara ntam wɔ osutɔ, ɔhyew nhyehyɛe, ne wim tebea a emu yɛ den (ɔpɛ ne nsuyiri) mu. Wɔahyɛ nkɔm sɛ wim tebea yi bɛkɔ soro daakye na wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ ɛde nsunsuanso kɛse bɛba kuayɛ adwuma no so.[44] Na eyi benya nnuan bo, aduan a wobenya, ne asase a wɔde bedi dwuma ho gyinaesi ahorow so nkɛntɛnso bɔne.[45] Wobetumi atew nnɔbae a efi kuayɛ a osu tɔ so wɔ Afrika aman bi mu no so akodu 50% wɔ afe 2020 mu.[44] Sɛnea ɛbɛyɛ na wɔasiw nkɛntɛnso bɔne a wim nsakrae benya daakye wɔ aduan a wɔyɛ so no ano no, ɛho hia sɛ wɔyɛ nsakrae anaasɛ wɔhyɛ nhyehyɛe ahorow a ebetumi aba a wɔde begyina wim nsakrae a ɛrekɔ soro no ano ho nyansa. Ɛsɛ sɛ Afrika aman kyekye ɔman mmara nhyehyɛe a wɔde bedi aduan ho dwuma sɛnea wim tebea mu nsakrae a wɔhwɛ kwan no te. Nanso, ansa na wbhy nhyehye bi a wde bgyina wim nsakrae a wde bhy mu no ano, titiriw w kuadwuma mu no, s s wnya ntease a emu da h w sde wim nsakrae ka nnuan nnɔbae ahorow ho. Eyi ho hia titiriw wɔ afe 2020 mu esiane Mmoadabi ntua a emu yɛ den a ɛka kuayɛ wɔ Afrika apuei fam wɔ ɔkwan a enye so nti.[46] Wɔkaa ntua no fa bi fi wim nsakrae – ɔhyew a ɛyɛ hyew ne osu a ɛtɔ kɛse a ɛmaa mmoadabi dodow kɔɔ soro wɔ ɔkwan a ɛnteɛ so.[46]

Wɔ Afrika Apuei fam no, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ wim nsakrae bɛma ɔpɛ ne nsuyiri a ɛtaa ba na emu yɛ den no mu ayɛ den, na ebetumi anya kuayɛ adwuma no so nkɛntɛnso bɔne. Wim nsakrae benya nkɛntɛnso ahorow wɔ kuayɛ mu nneɛma a wɔyɛ wɔ Afrika Apuei fam no so. Nhwehwɛmu a efi Amanaman Ntam Aduan Ho Nhyehyɛe Nhwehwɛmu Asoɛe (IFPRI) mu kyerɛ sɛ atoko nnɔbae a ɛkɔ soro wɔ Afrika Apuei Fam dodow no ara mu, nanso aba a wɔhwere wɔ Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Tanzania ne Uganda atifi fam mmeae bi.[47] Wɔhwɛ kwan nso sɛ wim nsakrae ho nkɔmhyɛ ahorow bɛtew tumi a asase a wɔyɛ so adwuma no wɔ sɛ ɛbɛma nnɔbae a ɛdɔɔso na ɛyɛ papa no so[48]

Wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ wim nsakrae a ɛwɔ Kenya no benya nkɛntɛnso kɛse wɔ kuayɛ adwuma a osu na ɛtɔ titiriw na enti ɛyɛ mmerɛw kɛse sɛ nsakrae a ɛba ɔhyew ne osutɔ mu, ne wim tebea a emu yɛ den mu.[49] Ɛda adi sɛ nkɛntɛnsoɔ no bɛda adi titire wɔ nsase a ɛso yɛ kusuu ne asase a ɛso yɛ kusuu fa (ASALs) a mmoayɛn ne sikasɛm ne asetena mu adwuma titire no. Wɔ ASALs mu no, mmoa a wowuwu bɛboro 70% fi ɔpɛ.[49] Wɔ mfeɛ 10 a ɛreba no mu no, [bere bɛn?] ASAL anantwi dodoɔ no mu 52% wɔ asiane mu sɛ wɔbɛhwere ɛnam ɔhyeɛ a ɛyɛ den kɛseɛ nti.[50] Wim nsakrae bɛma kuayɛ adwuma no mmerɛwyɛ ayɛ kɛse wɔ Afrika Kesee Fam aman dodow no ara a wɔabara dedaw esiane nnwuma a ɛnyɛ papa ne mfiridwuma mu nneɛma a wɔde ba ne nneɛma foforo a wɔyɛ mu a wɔakyɛ nti.[51] Ɛkame ayɛ sɛ atoko yɛ asase a wɔyɛ so adwuma wɔ Afrika Kesee Fam no fa, na wɔ wim nsakrae a ɛbɛba daakye ase no, nnɔbae betumi so atew 30%.[52] Ɔhyew a ɛkɔ soro nso hyɛ nwura ne mmoawa a wɔsɛe nnɔbae a ɛtrɛw kɛse ho nkuran.[53]

Wim nsakrae bɛka kuayɛ kɛse wɔ Afrika Atɔe fam denam nsakrae a ɛbɛkɔ soro wɔ aduan a wɔyɛ, nea wonya ne nea wonya mu no so.[54]

Wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ osu a ɛtɔ kɛse, ɔpɛ bere tenten ne ɔhyew a ɛkɔ soro no bɛka cassava, atoko ne bankye a wɔyɛ wɔ Afrika Mfinimfini fam no wɔ ɔkwan a enye so.[55] Wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ nsuyiri ne nsu a ɛtɔ gu fam no bɛsɛe akwantu nhyehyɛe a anohyeto wom dedaw wɔ ɔmantam no mu a ɛbɛma wɔahwere nneɛma wɔ otwa akyi.[55] Sikasɛm mu nnɔbae te sɛ kɔfe ne kokoo a wɔde kɔ amannɔne no renya nkɔanim wɔ ɔmantam no mu nanso saa nnɔbae yi yɛ mmerɛw kɛse wɔ wim nsakrae ho[55] Ntawntawdi ne amammui mu a entumi nnyina no anya nkɛntɛnso wɔ kuayɛ mmoa a wɔde ma wɔ ɔmantam no GDP mu no so na wim tebea mu asiane ahorow bɛma saa nkɛntɛnso yi ayɛ kɛse.[56]

Afrika ɔman no mu nneɛma nyinaa (GDP) betumi akɔ fam 2% esiane wiase hyew a ɛkɔ soro 1 °C nti, ne 12% esiane ɔhyew a ɛkɔ soro 4 °C nti. Wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ nnɔbae a wonya no so bɛtew kɛse esiane ɔhyew a ɛkɔ soro ne ɔpɛ a ebetumi aba wɔ asasepɔn no so nyinaa a ɛbɛkɔ soro nti. Bio nso, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ osu kɛse bɛtɔ mpɛn pii na atɔ kɛse wɔ Afrika nyinaa, na ama nsuyiri ho asiane ayɛ kɛse..[57][9][10][58]

Ahoɔden

[sesa]

Esiane sɛ nnipa dodow rekɔ soro na ahoɔden a wɔhwehwɛ a ɛne no hyia nti, ɛsɛ sɛ wodi ahoɔden ahobammɔ ho dwuma efisɛ ahoɔden ho hia kɛse ma nkɔso a ɛtra hɔ daa. Wim nsakrae aka ahoɔden adwumayɛbea ahorow wɔ Afrika efisɛ aman pii de wɔn ho to nsu mu anyinam ahoɔden a wɔyɛ so. Osu a ɛtɔ ne ɔpɛ a ɛso atew no ama nsu a ɛwɔ atare mu no so atew a ɛde nsunsuanso bɔne aba nsu mu anyinam ahoɔden a wɔyɛ so. Eyi ama anyinam ahoɔden a wɔyɛ no sua, anyinam ahoɔden ne anyinam ahoɔden a wɔsɛe no ho ka kɛse anaasɛ nneɛma a wɔde gu mu wɔ Afrika aman bi a wɔde wɔn ho to nsu mu anyinam ahoɔden a wɔyɛ so no mu. Nsu mu anyinam ahoɔden a wɔsɛe no no aka nnwuma ahorow wɔ aman te sɛ Ghana, Uganda, Kenya, ne Tanzania mu wɔ ɔkwan a enye so.

Nsu a ɛho yɛ na

[sesa]

Nsuo pa ne nea ɛwɔ hɔ no asɛe wɔ Afrika mmeae dodow no ara, titiriw esiane wim nsakrae nti[59] Nsuo a ɛwɔ hɔ no yɛ nea ɛyɛ mmerɛw na ɛwɔ hokwan sɛ wim nsakrae a ɛde nkɛntɛnso kɛse ba nnipa asetra so no betumi anya so nkɛntɛnso kɛse.[60] IPCC hyɛ nkɔm sɛ nnipa ɔpepem pii a wɔwɔ Afrika bɛkɔ so ahyia nsuo ho nhyɛsoɔ a ɛkɔ soro ɛnam wimu nsakraeɛ ne nsakraeɛ nti (IPCC 2013). Nsakrae a ɛba osutɔ nhyehyɛe mu no nya nsu a ɛsen fa asase ani ne nsu a ɛwɔ hɔ no so nkɛntɛnso tẽẽ.[61]

Ɛda adi sɛ wim nsakrae bɛma nsuo a ɛtwetwe nsuo a ɛyɛ den no ayɛ kɛseɛ bio wɔ Afrika nyinaa – sɛ nhwɛsoɔ no, Rufiji asubɔnten a ɛwɔ Tanzania no.[62]– ɛnam asase a wɔde di dwuma ahodoɔ, ne asetena mu amammuisɛm mu nsɛnnennen a ɛyɛ den nti.

Akwahosan ho nkɛntɛnso

[sesa]

Afrika aman na wɔwɔ ɔmanfo akwahosan ho nhyehyɛe a ɛnyɛ adwuma yiye koraa wɔ wiase.[63] Adesoa a ɛde nyarewa a ɛde ɔyare ba te sɛ asramma, schistosomiasis, dengue atiridii, meningitis, a ɛyɛ mmerɛw wɔ wim tebea ho no dɔɔso sen biara wɔ Afrika Sahara anafo fam mantam no mu. Sɛ nhwɛso no, nnipa a wonya asramma wɔ wiase nyinaa afe biara no mu bɛboro ɔha biara mu nkyem 90 wɔ Afrika.[63] Wim tebea mu nsakrae bɛka nnuru a ɛde ɔyare mmoawa ba no trɛw na ɛbɛsakra sɛnea nkurɔfo wɔ wɔ saa nyarewa yi ho no nso.

Sɛnea IPCC Nhwehwɛmu Amanneɛbɔ a Ɛto so Nsia kyerɛ no, wim nsakrae de asiane kɛse ba Afrikafo ɔpepem du du akwahosan so, efisɛ ɛma wonya ɔhyew a ɛnyɛ papa, wim tebea a emu yɛ den, ne nyarewa a wɔde yare mmoawa a wɔde kɔ nnipa mu a ɛkɔ soro ne nea wɔde kɔ nnipa mu no.[64]

Wim nsakrae, ne nea ɛde ɔhyew a ɛkɔ soro, ahum, ɔpɛ, ne po mu nsu a ɛkɔ soro ba no bɛka nyarewa a ɛde ɔyare mmoawa ba a ɛba ne sɛnea ɛtrɛw wɔ wiase nyinaa.[65]

Wɔ July 2021 mu no, Wiase Nyinaa Aduan Dwumadibea (WFP) de asodi too Madagascar kesee fam aduan ho haw a ɛrekɔ so no so sɛ wim nsakrae nkutoo na ɛde bae na ɛnyɛ ɔko anaa ntawntawdi. Wɔpaee mu kae sɛ ɛyɛ ɔkɔm a edi kan a wim nsakrae de bae[66][67][68]

Malaria

[sesa]

Wɔ Afrika no, asramma kɔ so nya ɔmanfo so nkɛntɛnso kɛse. Bere a wim nsakrae kɔ so no, mmeae pɔtee a ɛda adi sɛ asramma bɛkɔ so afe mũ no nyinaa, a asiane kɛse wom no bɛdan afi Afrika Atɔe fam mpoano akɔ beae bi a ɛda Democratic Republic of the Congo ne Uganda ntam, a wɔfrɛ no Afrika Mmepɔw[69]

Nyansahu mu anohyeto ahorow bere a wɔrehwehwɛ asramma a wɔde kɔ nnipa mu a ɛresakra wɔ Afrika Mmepɔw so no te sɛ nea ɛfa wim nsakrae ne asramma ho ntease a ɛtrɛw ho no. Bere a nhwɛsode a wɔde ɔhyew mu nsakrae kyerɛ no kyerɛ sɛ abusuabɔ bi da ɔhyew a ɛkɔ soro ne asramma a ɛkɔ soro ntam no, anohyeto ahorow da so ara wɔ hɔ. Nnipa dodow a wɔbɛsakra daakye a ɛka nnipa dodow, ne nsakrae a ɛbɛba wɔ nwansena nneyɛe mu no betumi aka sɛnea wɔde ɔyare no kɔ nnipa mu no dodow na ɛyɛ nneɛma a ɛto ano hye wɔ asiane a ɛwɔ hɔ sɛ asramma bɛpae daakye no mu, na ɛno nso ka nhyehyɛe a wɔbɛyɛ de asiesie wɔn ho sɛnea ɛte wɔ ɔyare mmoawa no ho.[69]

Ɛdefa asramma a ɛkɔ Afrika Mmepɔw so no dodow ho no, nneɛma ne nneɛma a ɛda adi a efi nneɛma a atwa yɛn ho ahyia mu nsakrae a emu yɛ den te sɛ wim tebea a ɛyɛ hyew, wim tebea a ɛsakra, ne nkɛntɛnso a ɛkɔ soro wɔ nnipa so te sɛ kwae a wotutu mu ba no ma tebea horow a ɛfata ma asramma a ɛkɔ ɔyarefo no ne nea ogye no ntam.[70] Titiriw no, malaria fi Plasmodium falciparum ne Plasmodium vivax mmoawa a wɔde ɔyare mmoawa Anopheles nwansena no kɔ. Ɛwom mpo sɛ Plasmodium vivax mmoawa no tumi tra ase wɔ ɔhyew a ɛba fam mu de, nanso Plasmodium falciparum ɔyare mmoawa no bɛtra ase na ayɛ foforo wɔ nwansena no mu bere a wim tebea boro 20 °C nkutoo[71] Nsuo a ɛyɛ nwini ne osuo a ɛkɔ soro nso boa ma saa aduru a ɛde ɔyareɛ ba yi yɛ nsɛsoɔ na ɛtra ase.[72], Asramma a wɔde wɔn ho bɛhyɛ mu no bɛyɛ asiane kɛseɛ ama nnipa berɛ a Anopheles nwansena mmaa dodoɔ a wɔanya Plasmodium falciparum anaa Plasmodium vivax mmoawa no kɔ soro no.[72]

Nhwehwɛmu ahorow kyerɛ sɛ wim tebea a ɛfata ma asramma a wɔde kɔ nnipa mu no nyinaa kɔ soro a ɛde nnipa dodow a asiane wom sɛ wobenya yare no akɔ soro.[73] Nea ɛho hia kɛse ne ɔyaredɔm a ebetumi aba wɔ mmeae a ɛkorɔn (te sɛ Afrika Mmepɔw) a ɛkɔ soro no. Ɔhyew a ɛkɔ soro wɔ mmeae yi betumi asakra mmeae a mpɛn pii no ɛnyɛ asramma no akɔ mmeae a ɔyaredɔm wɔ mmere bi mu.[74] Ne saa nti, nnipa foforo bɛda yare no adi a ɛde mfe a apɔwmuden bɛhwere. Nea ɛka ho no, ebia yare no ho adesoa no bɛsɛe mmeae a wonni tumi ne nneɛma a wɔde bedi nsɛnnennen ne nhyɛso a ɛtete saa ho dwuma yiye no kɛse.[75]

As climate change shifts geographic areas of transmission to the African Highlands, the challenge will be to find and control the vector in areas that have not seen it before[76]

Nkɛntɛnso a ɛwɔ ntawntawdi ne atutra so

[sesa]

Amanaman Nkabom no Nneɛma a Atwa Yɛn Ho Ahyia Dwumadibea no yɛɛ nneɛma a atwa yɛn ho ahyia ho nhwehwɛmu a wɔyɛe wɔ ntawntawdi akyi wɔ Sudan ho wɔ afe 2007 mu.[77] Sɛnea amanneɛbɔ yi kyerɛ no, nneɛma a atwa yɛn ho ahyia ho nhyɛso a ɛwɔ Sudan no ne asetra, sikasɛm ne amammuisɛm afoforo te sɛ nnipa a wotu fi wɔn afie mu ne akansi a ɛfa abɔde mu nneɛma ho no wɔ abusuabɔ. Wosusuwii sɛ ɔmantam mu wim nsakrae, denam osu a ɛtɔ a ɛso tew so no yɛ nneɛma a ɛde ntawntawdi bae wɔ Darfur no mu biako. Nea ɛka nneɛma afoforo a atwa yɛn ho ahyia ho no, wim nsakrae betumi aka daakye nkɔso wɔ Sudan wɔ ɔkwan a enye so. Nyansahyɛ ahorow a UNEP de mae no mu biako ne sɛ amanaman ntam nnipa bɛboa Sudan ma wɔayɛ nsakrae wɔ wim nsakrae mu.[78]

Nkɛntɛnso a ɛwɔ ɔmantam biara mu

[sesa]

Afrika Mfinimfini fam

[sesa]

Afrika Mfinimfini fam fa kɛse no ara yɛ nea asase ntumi nkɔ hɔ, na wim nsakrae de ne ho to asiane mu wɔ asasesin mu. Esiane sɛ wim tebea a ɛsakrasakra kɛse ne kuayɛ a osu tɔ na ɛyɛ nti, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ ɔhyew a ɛkyɛ na ɛtaa ba ne nsu a ɛyɛ nwini a ɛboro so a ɛbɛkɔ soro nso.[79] Wiase nyinaa hyew a ɛwɔ ɔmantam yi mu no bɛkɔ soro 1.5 °C kosi 2 °C.[80]

Tumi a kwae a ɛwɔ Congo Basin no tumi twetwe mframa bɔne no so atew. Saa so tew yi aba esiane ɔhyew ne ɔpɛ a ɛrekɔ soro a ɛde nnua nyin so tew nti. Eyi kyerɛ sɛ wim nsakrae rehaw kwae a wontwaa mpo. Nature nhwehwɛmu bi kyerɛ sɛ ɛduru afe 2030 no, Afrika kwaeɛ no bɛtwe carbon dioxide a ɛsua ɔha mu nkyekyɛmu 14 sene sɛdeɛ na ɛteɛ bɛyɛ afe 2005–2010, na ɛrentwe biara koraa wɔ afe 2035 mu.[81]

Afrika Apuei Fam

[sesa]

Ɛkame ayɛ sɛ osu a ɛtɔ wɔ Afrika Apuei fam no nyinaa fi mmeae a osu tɔ wɔ mmeae a osu tɔ na owia bɔ kɛse wɔ mmere horow mu no[82] Afrika Apuei fam wɔ osutɔ a ɛsakrasakra kɛse wɔ beae ne bere mu efisɛ ɛtrɛw bɛboro digrii 30 (wɔ equator no so). Ɛwɔ nkɛntɛnso ahorow a efi India ne Atlantic Po no nyinaa mu, na ɛwɔ asase ho nneɛma atitiriw (mmepɔw) ne nsu a ɛwɔ asase mu te sɛ Ɔtare Victoria. Enti osutɔ bere no gu ahorow fi osutɔ bere biako afe biara wɔ July–August mu wɔ atifi fam atɔe mmeae bi (a Ethiopia ne South Sudan ka ho, a wim tebea ne Afrika Atɔe fam wɔ abusuabɔ kɛse, a Afrika Atɔe Fam osutɔbere na ɛde osu no ba) kosi nsu biako bere afe biara wɔ December – February wɔ anafo fam (wɔ Tanzania so), a mmeae pii a ɛbɛn equator no nya osu bere abien afe biara,[83] bɛyɛ wɔ March–May ("Osu Tenten") ne October kosi December ("Osu Tiatiaa"). Mpɛn pii no, nsakrae nketenkete a ɛba osutɔ bere mu no bata orography ne atare ho. Afe ntam nsakraeɛ betumi ayɛ kɛseɛ na nneɛma a wonim sɛ wɔde di dwuma no bi ne nsakraeɛ a ɛba Po no ani hyeɛ (SSTs) mu wɔ ɛpo mu nsuo ahodoɔ mu, wim nsakraeɛ akwan akɛseɛ te sɛ Madden–Julian Oscilation (MJO) ne ahum a ɛtɔ wɔ mmeaeɛ a ɛhɔ yɛ hyeɛ.[84][85] Osu Tenten ne bere titiriw a wodua nnɔbae wɔ ɔmantam no mu. Afe ntam nkɔmhyɛ a ɛfa saa bere yi ho no sua sɛ wɔde toto Osu Tiatiaa no ho a, na nnansa yi nsu a ɛtɔe no ne wim tebea ho nkɔmhyɛ a ɛfa daakye a ɛyɛ nwini ho ("Afrika Apuei fam wim tebea ho abirabɔ" no bɔ abira.[86]

Afrika Apuei fam ahu ɔpɛ a ɛtaa ba na emu yɛ den wɔ nnansa yi mfe du du mu, ne nsuyiri a ɛsɛe ade nso. Nkɔso a ɛkɔ so wɔ osutɔ mu fi 1980 mfe no mu no kyerɛ sɛ osu a ɛtɔ wɔ March – May (MAM) mmere mu no so atew kɛse a ɛkɔ soro kakra wɔ June – September (JJAS) ne October – December (OND) osutɔ mu[87], ɛwom sɛ ɛte sɛ nea nnansa yi osu a ɛtɔe wɔ MAM no mu asan anya ahoɔden de.[88] Wɔkyerɛ sɛ daakye osutɔ ne ɔhyew nyinaa bɛsakra wɔ Afrika Apuei fam..[89][90][91] Nnansa yi nhwehwɛmu a wɔayɛ wɔ wim tebea ho akontaabu ho no kyerɛ sɛ sɛ wɔkyekyem pɛpɛɛpɛ a, ɔhyew betumi akɔ soro bɛyɛ 2–3 °C wɔ afeha no mfinimfini ne 2–5 °C wɔ afeha no awiei.[92] Eyi begyina tebea horow a ɛfa mframa a wɔtow gu ho ne sɛnea wim tebea ankasa yɛ ho biribi bere a wɔde toto nneɛma ahorow a ebetumi afi mu aba a nhwɛso ahorow ada no adi no ho no so. Wim tebea ho nhwɛsoɔ taa kyerɛ sɛ osuo bɛkɔ soro, titire wɔ OND berɛ mu, a wɔkyerɛ sɛ ɛno nso bɛba akyiri yi. Saa akyɛde yi wɔ osutɔ bere tiaa mu, wɔde abata Sahara Ɔhyew a ɛba fam no mu dɔ wɔ wim nsakrae ase. Nanso ɛsɛ sɛ yɛhyɛ no nsow sɛ nhwɛso ahorow bi kyerɛ sɛ osu bɛtew,[91][92] na wɔ mpɔtam ne mmere bi mu no, wɔada no adi sɛ osutɔ a ɛkɔ soro kɛse paa a wɔhyɛɛ ho nkɔm no fa akwan horow a wontumi nnye nni ho esiane nhyehyɛe mu mfomso ahorow a ɛwɔ nhwɛsode mu nti.[93] n nea ɛka ho no, nsakrae a ɛba aerosol mu no ma osutɔ nsakrae ho nhyɛso a wɔankyere wɔ wim tebea ho nhwehwɛmu pii mu.[94][95]

Nsonsonoe a ɛda osu a ɛtɔ wɔ MAM (osu a ɛtɔ tenten) mu wɔ equatorial Apuei Fam Afrika, a nhwɛso dodow no ara hyɛ nkɔm sɛ nsu bɛtɔ daakye no, wɔato din "Afrika Apuei fam wim nsakrae abirabɔ", .[95] ɛwom sɛ osu a ɛtɔe no asan anya ahoɔden bi nnansa yi de. Nhwehwɛmu ahorow ada no adi sɛ ɛnyɛ nea ɛda adi sɛ su a ɛma ɛyow no yɛ abɔde mu ade ara kwa, nanso ebia nneɛma te sɛ aerosols na ɛde ba mmom sen mframa a ɛma wim yɛ hyew,[88]

Nea ɛne osutɔ ho akontaabu a wontumi nsi pi no hyia no, nsakrae a ɛba osutɔ bere a efi ase mu no yɛ nea wontumi nsi pi wɔ Afrika Apuei Fam a ɛwɔ equatorial no mu, ɛwom sɛ nhwɛso pii hyɛ nkɔm sɛ osu tiawa bɛtɔ akyiri yi na ayɛ nsu de.[88] Wonim sɛ Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) no tumi di nsakrae a ɛba afe biara ntam wɔ osu tiawa a ɛtɔ mu no so denneennen,[96]

na nhwehwɛmu ahorow kyerɛ sɛ IOD ahorow a ɛtra so betumi akɔ soro wɔ wim nsakrae ase.[97] Wɔ wiase nyinaa no, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ wim nsakrae bɛma osu atɔ kɛse, efisɛ osu a ɛtɔ kɛse no kɔ soro ntɛmntɛm bere a ɔhyew no kɔ soro sen osu a ɛtɔ nyinaa.[7]

Nnansa yi adwuma kyerɛ sɛ wɔ Afrika nyinaa no, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ wiase nyinaa nhwɛso ahorow bebu nsakrae a ɛba wɔ osu a ɛtɔ kɛse yi mu no adewa,[3] na nsakrae a ɛba osutɔ a ɛtra so mu no betumi atrɛw kɛse asen nea wiase nyinaa nhwɛso ahorow ahyɛ ho nkɔm no[98]

Afrika Apuei fam mmeae no nya wɔn osu dodow no ara wɔ osutɔ bere biako mu wɔ kesee fam fa awɔw bere mu: wɔ Tanzania so no, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ osu a ɛtɔ wɔ mmere bi mu no bɛkɔ soro wɔ wim nsakrae a ɛbɛba daakye ase, ɛwom sɛ wontumi nsi pi de.[89] Wɔ anafo fam akyirikyiri, wɔ Mozambique so no, wɔahyɛ bere tiaa bi esiane sɛ ebefi ase akyiri yi nti wɔ wim nsakrae a ɛbɛba daakye ase, na bio a wontumi nsi pi wɔ ho kakra[99]

Afrika Atɔe Fam ne Sahel

[sesa]

Wobetumi akyekyɛ Afrika Atɔe Fam mantam no mu ayɛ no wim tebea ho mmeae nketewa anan a ɛne Guinea Mpoano, Soudano-Sahel, Sahel (a ɛtrɛw kɔ apuei fam kosi Ethiopia hye so) ne Sahara,[100] emu biara wɔ wim tebea horow a ɛsono emu biara. Osu a ɛtɔ wɔ mmere horow mu no fi sɛnea osu tɔ kɔ anafo fam kɔ ​​atifi fam no titiriw Mpɔtam a Ɛwɔ Ɔhyew Ntam Nkitahodi Beae (ITCZ) a nea ɛda nsow ne sɛnea anafo fam atɔe osutɔ mframa a ɛyɛ nwini ne Harmattan atifi fam apuei a ɛyɛ kusuu no bom.[101]

Wogyina osuo a ɛtɔ wɔ afe ntam no so a, wɔahu wim tebea titire mmiɛnsa wɔ Sahel: nsuo berɛ a ɛfiri 1950 kɔsi 1960 mfeɛ no mfitiaseɛ a ɛdi akyire no, ɔpɛ berɛ a ɛfiri 1972 kɔsi 1990 ne afei berɛ a ɛfiri 1991 rekɔ a ɛhunuu ne fa bi osutɔ a ɛsan tɔ bio.[102][103][104] Wɔ ɔpɛ bere no mu no, ɔpɛ a emu yɛ den titiriw pii sii wɔ Sahel, na ɛde ɔhaw kɛse bae.[105][106] The recent decades, have also witnessed a moderate increment in annual rainfall since the beginning of 1990s. However, total annual rainfall remains significantly below that observed during the 1950s.[107][105]

Ebinom aka sɛ mfe aduonu abien a atwam no yɛ bere a wɔn ho bɛtɔ wɔn.[108] Afoforo ka eyi ho asɛm sɛ bere a "nsu ho nimdeɛ a emu yɛ den" a osutɔ a ɛkɔ soro afe biara no mu dodow no ara fi osu a ɛtɔ a emu yɛ den kɛse na ɛtɔ mmere bi a nsuyiri sen sɛ osu bɛtɔ mpɛn pii, anaasɛ nnwuma afoforo a ɛte saa ara[109][110] si ɔpɛ a ɛkɔ so no so dua ɛwom mpo sɛ osu no akɔ soro de. Efi 1985 no, nsuyiri anum anaa nea ɛboro saa aka nnipa ɔha biara mu 54 wɔ Sahel mantam aman 17 no mu.[111] Wɔ afe 2012 mu no, wɔbɔɔ amanneɛ sɛ ɔpɛ a emu yɛ den sii wɔ Sahel. Nniso ahorow a ɛwɔ ɔmantam no mu yɛɛ ho biribi ntɛm ara, na wofii akwan horow a wɔbɛfa so adi asɛm no ho dwuma ase.[112]

Wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ ɔmantam no benya nsakrae wɔ osutɔ nhyehyɛe mu, a wim tebea ho nhwɛso ahorow kyerɛ sɛ osutɔ a ɛso tew wɔ osutɔ bere mu no taa yɛ kɛse wɔ Sahel atɔe fam, na ɛkɔ soro kɛse wɔ Sahel mfinimfini kosi apuei fam, ɛwom sɛ wontumi nnye ntom sɛ nneɛma a ɛne ne ho bɔ abira de.[113][114][115] Saa nneɛma yi bɛka nsuyiri, ɔpɛ, anhweatam a ɛdannan, anhwea ne mfutuma ahum, anhweatam so mmoadabi ɔyaredɔm ne nsu a ɛho yɛ na mpɛn pii ne sɛnea emu yɛ den no.[116][117]

Nanso, ɛmfa ho nsakrae a ɛba osu a ɛtɔ wɔ mmere bi mu no, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ ahum a ano yɛ den sen biara no bɛyɛ kɛse, na ɛbɛma nsuyiri a ɛtaa ba no ayɛ kɛse.[118][119] Carbon a wɔtow gu a ɛkɔ soro ne wiase nyinaa hyew nso betumi ama osutɔ a ɛkɔ soro titiriw wɔ Guinea Mpoano nyinaa a ɛne nsu a ɛtɔ a ɛso tew wɔ wiase nyinaa hyew a ɛyɛ 1.5 °C ne 2 °C nyinaa ase no wɔ abusuabɔ.[120]

Sahel mantam mu nnipa ɔha mu nkyekyɛmu dunum nso anya ɔhyew a ɛkɔ soro bɛboro 1 °C firi afe 1970 kɔsi afe 2010. Sahel mantam no, titire no, bɛnya ɔhyew a ɛkɔ soro wɔ afeha a ɛtɔ so aduonu baako yi mu ne nsakraeɛ a ɛba osuo nhyehyɛeɛ mu, sɛdeɛ no Aban Ntam Bagua a Ɛhwɛ Wim Tebea Nsakrae So (IPCC).

Nsakrae A Wɔyɛ Wɔ Nsakrae Mu

[sesa]

Sɛnea ɛbɛyɛ a wɔatew nkɛntɛnso a wim nsakrae de ba Afrika aman so no so no, ɛho hia sɛ wɔyɛ nsakrae wɔ akwan horow so – efi mpɔtam hɔ kosi ɔman ne ɔmantam mu.[121] Yebetumi akyerɛ awo ntoatoaso a edi kan a wɔyɛ nsakrae wɔ Afrika no kɛse sɛ ɛyɛ nketewa wɔ abɔde mu, a wɔde wɔn adwene asi sika a wɔde asi wɔn ani so wɔ kuayɛ mu ne mfiridwuma a wɔbɛtrɛw mu de aboa gyinaesi a ɛfa nsakrae ho.[122] Nnansa yi ara, nhyehyɛe ho mmɔdenbɔ asan akɔ mmɔdenbɔ akɛse a wɔayɛ no biako so, na wɔadi nsɛm a ɛfa nnwuma ahorow pii ho no ho dwuma. Sɛnea afe 2023 nhwehwɛmu bi kyerɛ no, Afrika sikakorabea ahorow 59% wɔ wim nsakrae ho nhyehyɛe a wɔayɛ, na 22% foforo nso ayɛ nhyehyɛe sɛ wɔde bi bedi dwuma. Mprempren sikakorabea ahorow 65% susuw wim tebea ho asiane ho bere a wɔresusuw afɛfo anaa nnwuma foforo ho no, na 23% foforo hwɛ kwan sɛ wɔbɛyɛ saa daakye.[123]

Wim tebea ho nkɔmhyɛ mfiridwuma a wɔatu mpɔn wɔ Afrika Sahara anafo fam no ho hia na ama wɔahu sɛnea wɔbɛyɛ wɔn ade wɔ wim nsakrae ho,[124] sɛ ɛbɛboa gyinaesi a ɛfa nsakrae a wɔbɛyɛ wɔ wim nsakrae ho sɛ nhwɛso no[124]

Wɔ Amanaman Nkabom no Nhyiamu a ɛtɔ so aduonu baako (COP) wɔ afe 2015 mu no, Afrika aman mpaninfoɔ de Africa Adaptation Initiative (AAI) sii hɔ. AAI akwankyerɛ boayikuo no yɛ Afrika Asomfoɔ Nhyiamu a ɛhwɛ nneɛma a atwa yɛn ho ahyia so (AMCEN) Dwumadibea ne Afrika Nkitahodifoɔ Kuo (AGN) no guamtrani.[125]

Europa Aman Nkabom Kuo nso boa Africa Adaptation Initiative no[126] Europa Aman Nkabom Kuo no ne Afrika Aman Nkabom Kuo no ayɛ adwuma abom wɔ nneɛma a wɔde di dwuma yie, nneɛma a atwa yɛn ho ahyia a wɔbɛtumi agyina ano, ne wim nsakraeɛ a wɔbɛbrɛ ase no ho nkuran[127]

Wɔ ɔmantam no mu no, ɔmantam nhyehyɛe ne nneyɛe a wɔde boa nsakrae a wɔbɛyɛ wɔ Afrika nyinaa da so ara wɔ ne mmofraase. IPCC Nhwehwɛmu Amanneɛbɔ a Ɛto so Anum (AR5) . si nhwɛsoɔ a ɛfa mpɔtam hɔ wim nsakraeɛ ho dwumadie nhyehyɛeɛ ahodoɔ ho so dua, a deɛ wɔayɛ no ka ho Afrika Kesee Fam Nkɔso Kuw (SADC) ne Ɔtare Victoria Basin Boayikuw.[128] Wɔ ɔman no mu no, wɔnam Ɔman Nsakraeɛ Nhyehyɛeɛ a Wɔde Yɛ Adwuma (NAPAs) anaa Ɔman Wim Tebea Nsakraeɛ Ho Mmuaeɛ Ho Nhyehyɛeɛ (NCCRS) so na ɛyɛɛ nhyehyɛeɛ bebree a wɔde bɛyɛ nsakraeɛ ntɛm. Nanso, wɔde adi dwuma brɛoo, na adi afra wɔ nneɛma a wɔde ma mu.[129] Wim nsakrae a wɔde bɛka sikasɛm ne nkɔso ho nhyehyɛe a ɛtrɛw ho no da so ara yɛ kakraa bi nanso ɛrenya nkɔanim.[130][131]

Wɔ ɔman nketewa mu no, amansin ne nkuropɔn mu atumfoɔ bebree nso reyɛ wɔn ankasa akwan, sɛ nhwɛsoɔ no, Western Cape Wim Tebea Nsakraeɛ Ho Mmuaeɛ Nhyehyɛeɛ.[132] Nanso, mpɛn pii no, mfiridwuma mu ahoɔden ne nneɛma a ɛwɔ hɔ a wɔde bedi nhyehyɛe ahorow ho dwuma no sua. Wɔde adwene kɛse asi Afrika nyinaa so sɛ wɔde nnwuma a wɔde bɛsakra nneɛma a egyina mpɔtam hɔ so bedi dwuma. Wɔagye atom kɛse sɛ mmoa a wɔde ma wɔ mpɔtam hɔ nsakrae ho no ye yiye denam mpɔtam hɔ nsakrae tumi a ɛwɔ hɔ dedaw a wobefi ase, na wɔde wɔn ho ahyɛ aborɔfo nimdeɛ ne nneyɛe mu.[133]

IPCC si akwan horow bi a edi mu a wɔfa so hyɛ nsakrae a etu mpɔn ho nkuran wɔ Afrika so dua, na ɛkyerɛ nnyinasosɛm anum a wɔtaa de di dwuma.[128] Eyinom bi ne:

  1. Mmoa a wɔde ma wɔ akwan horow a wɔfa so yɛ nsakrae a wɔde wɔn ho ma no a wɔbɛma ayɛ kɛse;
  2. Adwene a wɔbɛma akɔ soro wɔ amammerɛ, abrabɔ pa, ne hokwan ahorow a wosusuw ho wɔ nsakrae ho (titiriw denam mmea, mmabun, ne ahiafo ne nnipa a wonni ahobammɔ a wɔde wɔn ho bɛhyɛ nsakrae dwumadi ahorow mu denneennen so);
Leptis Magna agoprama, a wotumi hu po no wɔ akyi no nkae
Nhwehwɛmu a wɔyɛe wɔ afe 2022 mu aba no kyerɛ sɛ ɛte sɛ nea wim nsakrae a ɛba Kenya ne Cameroon no aka nnua ne nsu a wobenya no kɛse.
Sikasɛm hokwan ahorow a ɛyɛ ahabammono ne nneɛma a efi sikakorabea ahorow a wɔayɛ mu nhwehwɛmu wɔ European Investment Bank ’s Banking in Africa nhwehwɛmu mu
Nea efii mu bae a ɛfa Afrika sikakorabea ahorow wim tebea ho asiane kwan (sikakorabea ahorow a wɔyɛɛ nhwehwɛmu no mu %) fi Europa Sikakorabea Sikakorabea wɔ Afrika nhwehwɛmu a wɔyɛe wɔ afe 2021 mu
Wim nsakrae pɔtee adwumayɛfo a wɔwɔ Afrika sikakorabea ahorow a wɔyɛɛ nhwehwɛmu wɔ European Investment Bank Banking in Africa nhwehwɛmu (Afrika sikakorabea ahorow a wɔyɛɛ nhwehwɛmu no mu %) .
  1. ↑ Schneider, S. H.; et al. (2007). "19.3.3 Regional vulnerabilities". In Parry, M. L.; et al. (eds.). Chapter 19: Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and the Risk from Climate Change. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press (CUP): Cambridge, UK: Print version: CUP. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7. Archived from the original on 2013-03-12. Retrieved 2011-09-15.
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 Niang, I.; O. C. Ruppel; M. A. Abdrabo; A. Essel; C. Lennard; J. Padgham, and P. Urquhart, 2014: Africa. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V. R.; C. B. Field; D. J. Dokken et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1199–1265. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap22_FINAL.pdf
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Stratton, Rachel A.; Tucker, Simon; Marsham, John H.; Berthou, Ségolène; Rowell, David P.; Senior, Catherine A. (2019). "Enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes over Africa at convection-permitting scale". Nature Communications (in English). 10 (1): 1794. Bibcode:2019NatCo..10.1794K. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09776-9. PMC 6478940. PMID 31015416.
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 "More Extreme Weather in Africa's Future, Study Says | The Weather Channel – Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com". The Weather Channel (in American English). Retrieved 2022-07-01.
  5. ↑ United Nations, UNEP (2017). "Responding to climate change". UNEP – UN Environment Programme (in English). Retrieved 2022-07-01.
  6. ↑ Boko, M. (2007). "Executive summary". In Parry, M. L.; et al. (eds.). Chapter 9: Africa. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press (CUP): Cambridge, UK: Print version: CUP. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7. Archived from the original on 8 November 2011. Retrieved 2011-09-15.
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 IPCC (2018). "Global Warming of 1.5°C: an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty". IPCC. Retrieved 2020-02-16.
  8. ↑ European Investment Bank (6 July 2022). EIB Group Sustainability Report 2021 (in English). European Investment Bank. ISBN 978-92-861-5237-5.
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 "Climate change triggers mounting food insecurity, poverty and displacement in Africa". public.wmo.int (in English). 18 October 2021. Retrieved 2022-07-26.
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 "Global warming: severe consequences for Africa". Africa Renewal (in English). 7 December 2018. Retrieved 2022-07-26.
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 Rural societies in the face of climatic and environmental changes in West Africa. Marseille: IRD éditions. 2017. ISBN 978-2-7099-2424-5. OCLC 1034784045. Impr. Jouve.
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 12.2 Collins, Jennifer M. (15 July 2011). "Temperature Variability over Africa". Journal of Climate. 24 (14): 3649–3666. Bibcode:2011JCli...24.3649C. doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3753.1.
  13. ↑ Conway, Declan; Persechino, Aurelie; Ardoin-Bardin, Sandra; Hamandawana, Hamisai; Dieulin, Claudine; Mahé, Gil (February 2009). "Rainfall and Water Resources Variability in Sub-Saharan Africa during the Twentieth Century". Journal of Hydrometeorology. 10 (1): 41–59. Bibcode:2009JHyMe..10...41C. doi:10.1175/2008JHM1004.1.
  14. ↑ World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal. "Kenya (Vulnerability)". Retrieved 2021-01-28.
  15. ↑ Hirch, Aurther (November 2017). "Effects of climate change likely to be more deadly in poor African settlements".
  16. ↑ AFRICAN STRATEGY ON CLIMATE CHANGE (PDF). African Union. 2014.
  17. ↑ European Investment Bank (2022-10-19). Finance in Africa - Navigating the financial landscape in turbulent times (in English). European Investment Bank. ISBN 978-92-861-5382-2.
  18. ↑ "Financing for Sustainable Development Report 2021" (PDF). UN.
  19. ↑ United Nations. "Population growth, environmental degradation and climate change". United Nations (in English). Retrieved 2022-10-28.
  20. ↑ "Fact sheet - Africa" (PDF).
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  118. ↑ Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Stratton, Rachel A.; Tucker, Simon; Marsham, John H.; Berthou, Ségolène; Rowell, David P.; Senior, Catherine A. (23 April 2019). "Enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes over Africa at convection-permitting scale". Nature Communications. 10 (1): 1794. Bibcode:2019NatCo..10.1794K. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09776-9. PMC 6478940. PMID 31015416.
  119. ↑ Klutse, Nana Ama Browne; Ajayi, Vincent O; Gbobaniyi, Emiola Olabode; Egbebiyi, Temitope S; Kouadio, Kouakou; Nkrumah, Francis; Quagraine, Kwesi Akumenyi; Olusegun, Christiana; Diasso, Ulrich; Abiodun, Babatunde J; Lawal, Kamoru; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher; Dosio, Alessandro (1 May 2018). "Potential impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on consecutive dry and wet days over West Africa". Environmental Research Letters. 13 (5): 055013. Bibcode:2018ERL....13e5013A. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab37b.
  120. ↑ Climate Analytics. "Africa's Adaptation Gap, Technical Report: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Challenges, and Costs for Africa" (PDF). Climate Analytics. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2022-11-17. Retrieved 2024-07-03.
  121. ↑ Troni, Jessica (2018). Climate change adaptation in Africa : UNDP synthesis of experiences and recommendations. OCLC 1079881730.
  122. ↑ Bank, European Investment (2023-09-27). Finance in Africa: Uncertain times, resilient banks: African finance at a crossroads (in English). European Investment Bank. ISBN 978-92-861-5598-7.
  123. ↑ 124.0 124.1 Youds, L.; Parker, D. J.; Adefisan, E. A.; Antwi-Agyei, P.; Bain, C. L.; Black, E. C. L.; Blyth, A. M.; Dougill, A. J.; Hirons, L. C. (13 May 2021). "GCRF African SWIFT White Paper Policy Brief: The future of African weather forecasting". eprints.whiterose.ac.uk (in English). doi:10.5518/100/67. Retrieved 2021-05-13.
  124. ↑ Africa Adaptation Initiative
  125. ↑ "European Union ramps up support to Africa Adaptation Initiative". United Nations Development Programme. 22 January 2020.
  126. ↑ "Strengthening Resilience, Peace, Security and Governance". Archived from the original on 10 May 2021. Retrieved 13 December 2023.
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  128. ↑ Pardoe, Joanna; Conway, Declan; Namaganda, Emilinah; Vincent, Katharine; Dougill, Andy; Kashaigili, Japhet (2018). "Climate Change and the Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Policy and Practice in Tanzania". Climate Policy. 18 (7): 863–877. doi:10.1080/14693062.2017.1386082.
  129. ↑ Osman-Elasha, Balgis; Downing, Tom (2007). Lessons learned in preparing national adaptation programmes of action in Eastern and Southern Africa. Stockholm Environment Institute.
  130. ↑ Africa. In: Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (PDF). 2014.
  131. ↑ Western Cape Government (2014). "Western Cape Climate Change Response Strategy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2023-02-20. Retrieved 2024-07-03.
  132. ↑ Ofoegbu, Chidiebere; Chirwa, Paxie; Francis, Joseph; Babalola, Folaranmi (15 May 2017). "Assessing vulnerability of rural communities to climate change: A review of implications for forest-based livelihoods in South Africa". International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management. 9 (3): 374–386. doi:10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2016-0044. hdl:2263/61659.


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